Table of Contents
| 1. | Bond Market Graphs |
| 2. | Average Bond Market Return |
| 3. | Bond Market Data Table |
| 4. | Data Sources |
The above charts show how the United States bond market has performed as a whole for over a century.
Specifically, this represents total returns (price and dividend) for Intermediate Term U.S. Government Treasury bonds.
This is what we use for the bond portfolio allocation in our Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator to help people plan their retirement strategies.
Any income investor needs to know what kind of cash flow they can expect from the portion of their portfolio allocated to bonds. The following table outlines the performance of intermediate term treasury bonds throughout different periods of history.
| Time Period | Average Bond Market Return |
|---|---|
| All (1920-2022) | 4.69% |
| Modern (1950-2022) | 5.34% |
| 21st Century (2000-2022) | 3.07% |
| Year | Bond Market Returns |
|---|---|
| 1920 | 4.97% |
| 1921 | 5.09% |
| 1922 | 4.30% |
| 1923 | 4.36% |
| 1924 | 4.06% |
| 1925 | 3.86% |
| 1926 | 3.68% |
| 1927 | 3.34% |
| 1928 | 3.33% |
| 1929 | 3.60% |
| 1930 | 3.29% |
| 1931 | 3.34% |
| 1932 | 3.68% |
| 1933 | 3.31% |
| 1934 | 3.12% |
| 1935 | 2.79% |
| 1936 | 2.65% |
| 1937 | 2.68% |
| 1938 | 2.56% |
| 1939 | 2.36% |
| 1940 | 2.21% |
| 1941 | 1.95% |
| 1942 | 2.46% |
| 1943 | 2.47% |
| 1944 | 2.48% |
| 1945 | 2.37% |
| 1946 | 2.19% |
| 1947 | 2.25% |
| 1948 | 2.44% |
| 1949 | 2.31% |
| 1950 | 2.32% |
| 1951 | 2.57% |
| 1952 | 2.68% |
| 1953 | 2.83% |
| 1954 | 2.48% |
| 1955 | 2.61% |
| 1956 | 2.90% |
| 1957 | 3.46% |
| 1958 | 3.09% |
| 1959 | 4.02% |
| 1960 | 4.72% |
| 1961 | 3.84% |
| 1962 | 4.08% |
| 1963 | 3.83% |
| 1964 | 4.17% |
| 1965 | 4.19% |
| 1966 | 4.61% |
| 1967 | 4.58% |
| 1968 | 5.53% |
| 1969 | 6.04% |
| 1970 | 7.79% |
| 1971 | 6.24% |
| 1972 | 5.95% |
| 1973 | 6.46% |
| 1974 | 6.99% |
| 1975 | 7.50% |
| 1976 | 7.74% |
| 1977 | 7.21% |
| 1978 | 7.96% |
| 1979 | 9.10% |
| 1980 | 10.80% |
| 1981 | 12.57% |
| 1982 | 14.59% |
| 1983 | 10.46% |
| 1984 | 11.67% |
| 1985 | 11.38% |
| 1986 | 9.19% |
| 1987 | 7.08% |
| 1988 | 8.67% |
| 1989 | 9.09% |
| 1990 | 8.21% |
| 1991 | 8.09% |
| 1992 | 7.03% |
| 1993 | 6.60% |
| 1994 | 5.75% |
| 1995 | 7.78% |
| 1996 | 5.65% |
| 1997 | 6.58% |
| 1998 | 5.54% |
| 1999 | 4.72% |
| 2000 | 6.66% |
| 2001 | 5.16% |
| 2002 | 5.04% |
| 2003 | 4.05% |
| 2004 | 4.15% |
| 2005 | 4.22% |
| 2006 | 4.42% |
| 2007 | 4.76% |
| 2008 | 3.74% |
| 2009 | 2.52% |
| 2010 | 6.50% |
| 2011 | 9.92% |
| 2012 | 2.32% |
| 2013 | -2.46% |
| 2014 | 4.46% |
| 2015 | 1.50% |
| 2016 | 0.68% |
| 2017 | 1.74% |
| 2018 | 1.44% |
| 2019 | 6.32% |
| 2020 | 7.33% |
| 2021 | -2.82% |
| 2022 | -11.07% |
The data in the chart and in the table is made up of intermediate term U.S. government Treasury bonds. These numbers are collected from the following sources:
From 2010-Present, the bond figures are pulled from the VGIT ETF which is a Vanguard product which invests primarily in U.S. intermediate term U.S. Treasury bonds.
From 1920-2009, the bond figures are pulled from Robert Shiller's book "Market Volatility" (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press).