The above charts show how the entire United States stock market has performed as a whole for over a century.
Using the S&P 1500 instead of the S&P 500, we can get a picture of the whole US stock market instead of only the 500 largest companies. The S&P 1500 is an index that combines the S&P 500 (large-cap), the S&P 400 (mid-cap), and the S&P 600 (small-cap) to ensure that it consists of companies of all sizes and market caps. This index gives a representative sample of the entire economy as a whole.
For investors headed into retirement, a diversified stock portfolio is crucial to having your money last as long as possible. That is why our Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator uses the S&P 1500 to demonstrate and calculate how your retirement withdrawal strategy would perform.
For planning purposes, it is a good idea to have a realistic measure for how the stock market has performed, on average, throughout history. The following table shows how the entire stock market, as represented by the S&P 1500 total return (gains and dividends), has performed across different time periods.
| Time Period | Average Stock Market Return |
|---|---|
| All (1920-2022) | 11.80% |
| Modern (1950-2022) | 12.32% |
| 21st Century (2000-2022) | 8.11% |
Knowing the annualized return is even more important than knowing the average return. This is because the annualize return, while similar to the average return, gives you a more mathematically accurate picture of how your investment would actually perform on a compounding basis.
| Time Period | Annualized Stock Market Return |
|---|---|
| All (1920-2022) | 10.11% |
| Modern (1950-2022) | 11.08% |
| 21st Century (2000-2022) | 6.50% |
| Year | S&P 1500 Total Return |
|---|---|
| 1920 | -13.70% |
| 1921 | 9.14% |
| 1922 | 28.90% |
| 1923 | 5.17% |
| 1924 | 26.05% |
| 1925 | 25.24% |
| 1926 | 11.38% |
| 1927 | 36.57% |
| 1928 | 46.66% |
| 1929 | -8.77% |
| 1930 | -21.88% |
| 1931 | -42.93% |
| 1932 | -8.55% |
| 1933 | 54.87% |
| 1934 | -7.87% |
| 1935 | 53.67% |
| 1936 | 33.07% |
| 1937 | -31.15% |
| 1938 | 15.03% |
| 1939 | 3.36% |
| 1940 | -8.78% |
| 1941 | -8.63% |
| 1942 | 19.60% |
| 1943 | 23.49% |
| 1944 | 19.24% |
| 1945 | 38.47% |
| 1946 | -11.65% |
| 1947 | 3.02% |
| 1948 | 9.84% |
| 1949 | 17.32% |
| 1950 | 34.36% |
| 1951 | 20.70% |
| 1952 | 14.06% |
| 1953 | 2.79% |
| 1954 | 45.88% |
| 1955 | 28.62% |
| 1956 | 6.84% |
| 1957 | -5.55% |
| 1958 | 39.52% |
| 1959 | 7.62% |
| 1960 | 6.27% |
| 1961 | 19.04% |
| 1962 | -2.72% |
| 1963 | 21.01% |
| 1964 | 15.92% |
| 1965 | 11.52% |
| 1966 | -6.43% |
| 1967 | 16.00% |
| 1968 | 10.60% |
| 1969 | -8.40% |
| 1970 | 7.00% |
| 1971 | 13.78% |
| 1972 | 17.69% |
| 1973 | -15.99% |
| 1974 | -20.76% |
| 1975 | 38.56% |
| 1976 | 11.36% |
| 1977 | -8.56% |
| 1978 | 16.10% |
| 1979 | 16.86% |
| 1980 | 25.49% |
| 1981 | -6.81% |
| 1982 | 28.87% |
| 1983 | 20.25% |
| 1984 | 7.66% |
| 1985 | 25.92% |
| 1986 | 31.03% |
| 1987 | -1.97% |
| 1988 | 17.84% |
| 1989 | 22.99% |
| 1990 | -0.70% |
| 1991 | 31.58% |
| 1992 | 7.58% |
| 1993 | 11.57% |
| 1994 | 1.15% |
| 1995 | 35.03% |
| 1996 | 27.13% |
| 1997 | 27.75% |
| 1998 | 31.31% |
| 1999 | 15.50% |
| 2000 | -5.17% |
| 2001 | -10.08% |
| 2002 | -21.01% |
| 2003 | 26.56% |
| 2004 | 9.69% |
| 2005 | 7.07% |
| 2006 | 14.96% |
| 2007 | 4.86% |
| 2008 | -36.37% |
| 2009 | 28.38% |
| 2010 | 16.70% |
| 2011 | 1.98% |
| 2012 | 16.03% |
| 2013 | 30.36% |
| 2014 | 12.96% |
| 2015 | -1.22% |
| 2016 | 15.06% |
| 2017 | 20.98% |
| 2018 | -7.17% |
| 2019 | 33.99% |
| 2020 | 17.26% |
| 2021 | 28.28% |
| 2022 | -17.53% |
The data in the chart and in the table is of the S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market Index. These numbers are collected from multiple sources to piece together over a century of data.
From 2001-Present, the S&P 1500 figures are pulled from the SPTM ETF which tracks the S&P 1500 index with a minimal expense fee.
From 1920-2000, the S&P 1500 figures are pulled from Robert Shiller's book "Market Volatility" (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press) with some pre-1927 historical projections from Cowles and Associates' book "Common Stock Indexes" (2nd ed., Bloomington, Ind.: Principia Press, 1939).